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for uk Rt nowcast and forecast


Real-time tracking of an epidemic, as data accumulate over time, is an essential component of a public health response to a new outbreak. A team of statistical modellers at the MRC Biostatistics Unit (BSU), University of Cambridge, are working to provide regular now-casts and forecasts of COVID-19 infections and deaths. This information feeds directly to the SAGE sub-group, Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M), and to regional Public Health England (PHE) teams.

• Model and report changes Our real-time model has been further updated to allow higher susceptibility to infection in the over-75s. The modelling focusses on regional data and we no longer report an estimate of R[size=70.7%]t[/size] for England. This is better provided through the modelling consensus statement supplied by SPI-M and SAGE.
     Updated findings
  • We estimate that across England, infections are down to 3,000 (1,500–5,800, 95% credible interval) new infections arising each day
  • We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 35 and 70 by the middle of July.
  • We estimate that it is very likely that R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
• is below 1 in each region of England.
• The Midlands has the highest probability (15%) that R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
• is above 1 and a central estimate for R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
• of 0.89. However, the numbers of new infections occurring in this region on a daily basis is relatively low.
• The data used are only weakly informative on R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
• over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

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These are up-to-date values for R_t, in the USA by State --updated regularly

Rt is a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If R_t is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When R_t is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading

https://rt.live/