Recent Posts
51
C19 Notes Database / Re: Discussion of new UK variant
« Last post by stog on December 21, 2020, 01:35:17 PM »Ewan Birney, Deputy Director General of EMBL and Director of EMBL-EBI.Cambridge says about the graph at the top"It’s worth stressing this is one locus and frustratingly it is recurrent. Ie - you can’t infer the earlier red is the same as the later red"also there is this interesting read from Tom Chivers https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-dangerous-is-the-covid-mutation/
and to recap Covid is more infectious than flu, but 10x as deadly.
John Hopkins estimates Covid mortality rates to be ~10x that of Flu
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Moreover Covid affects People in the 20% most deprived parts of England were twice as likely to die from COVID-19 as those in the least deprived areas.https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong
See also Similarities and Differences between Flu and COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm
As Omicron, this latest variant (VOC Variant of Concern) starts to rip through the UK (Dec 21, 2021) it is even more infectious, and transmission R rate is currently believed to be ~ 5
though hopefully this will reduce as many people have already begun to self-lockdown distance and re-employ mitigating factors such as masks ventilation washing hands and surfaces etc see also http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg195.html#msg195
The every important factor remains the very large numbers cases that cannot only swamp an already depleted NHS but also impact strategic services such as logistics (think rail and lorry drivers) but also agriculture and the list goes on
see also "As covid cases rise, the loss of critical staff is causing a crisis in the NHS"
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3128
and
Add the fact that NHS staff are already wiped out from near on 2 years of this and 12 hour trolley waits at A&E (ED) are >10K and rising http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg192.html#msg192
and to recap Covid is more infectious than flu, but 10x as deadly.
John Hopkins estimates Covid mortality rates to be ~10x that of Flu
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Moreover Covid affects People in the 20% most deprived parts of England were twice as likely to die from COVID-19 as those in the least deprived areas.https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong
See also Similarities and Differences between Flu and COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm
As Omicron, this latest variant (VOC Variant of Concern) starts to rip through the UK (Dec 21, 2021) it is even more infectious, and transmission R rate is currently believed to be ~ 5
though hopefully this will reduce as many people have already begun to self-lockdown distance and re-employ mitigating factors such as masks ventilation washing hands and surfaces etc see also http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg195.html#msg195
The every important factor remains the very large numbers cases that cannot only swamp an already depleted NHS but also impact strategic services such as logistics (think rail and lorry drivers) but also agriculture and the list goes on
see also "As covid cases rise, the loss of critical staff is causing a crisis in the NHS"
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3128
and
Add the fact that NHS staff are already wiped out from near on 2 years of this and 12 hour trolley waits at A&E (ED) are >10K and rising http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg192.html#msg192
52
C19 Notes Database / Discussion of new UK variant
« Last post by stog on December 21, 2020, 01:22:10 PM »Interesting Twitter discussion of the announced new strain, that reminds us that there are always new variants appearing and becoming dominant if successful.The screenshot shows the new variant (red) increasing, but remember that there are other colours (variants) not being picked up by the PCR test (but that can be picked up by genome sequencing).The infectiousness of the different strains has always been high and as new variations evolve, usually become more virulent if they are dominant, so it is not out of the normal where virii are concerned.Our approaches should stay the same -- distancing masks space and air, and fast safe vaccine roll-out where possible
--
the chart in the screenshot below shows"MK LHL testing data showing increasing prevalence of H69/V70 variant in positive test data - which is detected incidentally by the commonly used 3-gene PCR test."and Tony Cox is CEO, NIHR National Biosample Centre and the Milton Keynes "Lighthouse" Coronavirus Testing Mega-Lab the thread is https://twitter.com/The_Soup.../status/1340349639946629120
---other comments include (this from Guardian LIVE
==
the second attachment below shows where the new, potentially more infectious variant of Covid-19 has been detected so far in the UK -- most prevalent in the SE but has started to spread all over the country -- from a tweet from Niko Kommenda who does the graphics for the Guardianremember like most dominant strains it spreads like wildfire given the chance -- so distance , wash hands , air, space, masks, and vaccine roll-out is still our way out of this, where services won't be over-run, and those fit young or immune can get about the new normal..
--
the chart in the screenshot below shows"MK LHL testing data showing increasing prevalence of H69/V70 variant in positive test data - which is detected incidentally by the commonly used 3-gene PCR test."and Tony Cox is CEO, NIHR National Biosample Centre and the Milton Keynes "Lighthouse" Coronavirus Testing Mega-Lab the thread is https://twitter.com/The_Soup.../status/1340349639946629120
---other comments include (this from Guardian LIVE
Quote
A scientific expert said it is likely that the new mutated coronavirus in the UK will become the dominant global strain of Covid-19.
Calum Semple, professor of outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told Sky News:
"I suspect it will, or strains like it will (become dominant).Because the virus has the evolutionary advantage in transmitting more quickly, it will out-compete all the other strains, and so it will naturally do that.As immunity comes into the community more widely, then you’ll start to see more pressure on the virus and you’re more likely to see other escapes of other variations.This is not a surprise, we deal with this with influenza year-on-year.The flu vaccine typically contains three or four flavours of the influenza virus and we simply pick on a best-guess basis each season and then people that make the vaccines scale up in a timely manner."
==
the second attachment below shows where the new, potentially more infectious variant of Covid-19 has been detected so far in the UK -- most prevalent in the SE but has started to spread all over the country -- from a tweet from Niko Kommenda who does the graphics for the Guardianremember like most dominant strains it spreads like wildfire given the chance -- so distance , wash hands , air, space, masks, and vaccine roll-out is still our way out of this, where services won't be over-run, and those fit young or immune can get about the new normal..
53
C19 Notes Database / take note of the Topic posting dates as info may have changed
« Last post by stog on December 20, 2020, 02:27:07 PM »Please be aware some of the Articles may now be out of date or surpassed by more recent findings etc as the science evolves, so do take note of the Posting date and read in context.
eg Vaccines are only now starting to appear (mid December 2020>)and are continually assessed, but back before this date it was not even know if any of the candidates would be successful and they were only in v early trials.
Please email me if you feel a post or Topic needs flagging or editing because its info has been surpassed or proved incorrect. thx
eg Vaccines are only now starting to appear (mid December 2020>)and are continually assessed, but back before this date it was not even know if any of the candidates would be successful and they were only in v early trials.
Please email me if you feel a post or Topic needs flagging or editing because its info has been surpassed or proved incorrect. thx
54
C19 Notes Database / swiss cheese calculator
« Last post by stog on December 18, 2020, 10:31:05 AM »This calculator imitates a contact between two people (one is you) and is based on the swiss cheese model for coronavirus, adapted by Doctor Ian M. Mackay, who portrays the fight against COVID-19 as a pile of cheese slices.
The more slices (ways of protection) you have, the less chance of the holes coinciding and the safer you are.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/swiss-cheese-coronavirus
The more slices (ways of protection) you have, the less chance of the holes coinciding and the safer you are.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/swiss-cheese-coronavirus
55
C19 Notes Database / Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK
« Last post by stog on December 18, 2020, 09:52:27 AM »Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK
This calculator estimates where you are in the queue to receive a COVID vaccine in the UK. 💉
It is based on the nine-point priority list released by the UK government, which you can view here.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
This calculator estimates where you are in the queue to receive a COVID vaccine in the UK. 💉
It is based on the nine-point priority list released by the UK government, which you can view here.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
56
C19 Notes Database / Mitigation calculator
« Last post by stog on December 18, 2020, 09:43:59 AM »Mitigation calculator
This tool can be used to calculate the estimated effect of various combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 transmission. On the left, intervention and intervention groups can be toggled on and off. On the right, the percentage reduction in R is displayed using coloured bands to indicate uncertainty. The NPI effectiveness estimates are derived in [Brauner et al, Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.]. If desired, the effectiveness of each NPI can be manually adjusted to account for specific local circumstances in a country.
http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc
This tool can be used to calculate the estimated effect of various combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 transmission. On the left, intervention and intervention groups can be toggled on and off. On the right, the percentage reduction in R is displayed using coloured bands to indicate uncertainty. The NPI effectiveness estimates are derived in [Brauner et al, Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.]. If desired, the effectiveness of each NPI can be manually adjusted to account for specific local circumstances in a country.
http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc
57
C19 Notes Database / A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on December 15, 2020, 11:05:12 AM »Here is a reminder why we have restrictions, lockdowns and having to endure very real Economic hardships .
Why we are having to wear a mask, keep physically distant and observe good ventilation.
If left to its own devices Covid would overwhelm our Services. here is a back of an envelope calculation i did for a UK anti-masker who turned out NOT to know that asymptomatic spread is highly contagious as of course are pre-symptomatics.
Why we are having to wear a mask, keep physically distant and observe good ventilation.
If left to its own devices Covid would overwhelm our Services. here is a back of an envelope calculation i did for a UK anti-masker who turned out NOT to know that asymptomatic spread is highly contagious as of course are pre-symptomatics.
58
C19 Notes Database / Pfizer’s Vaccine Offers Strong Protection After First Dose
« Last post by stog on December 08, 2020, 04:14:49 PM »Pfizer’s Vaccine Offers Strong Protection After First DoseThe Food and Drug Administration’s first analysis of the clinical trial data also found that the coronavirus vaccine worked well regardless of a volunteer’s race, weight or age.
good info here -- u can simply sign in to the New York Times with facebook to view the article
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html
ERic in the post btw is Epidemiologist & Health Economist. Senior Fellow. Fmr 16 yrs @Harvard
. Fmr drug safety whistleblower
==
it's looking good so far -- but as with all vaccines --time really tells -- the article gives some good info but as a virologist/vaccine maker once said
"i'm only really happy if no problems after the Billionth shot"
the article describes initial temporary symptoms which seem to fade and the vaccine is not recommended for pregnant or nursing mothers or U16s
good info here -- u can simply sign in to the New York Times with facebook to view the article
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html
ERic in the post btw is Epidemiologist & Health Economist. Senior Fellow. Fmr 16 yrs @Harvard
. Fmr drug safety whistleblower
==
it's looking good so far -- but as with all vaccines --time really tells -- the article gives some good info but as a virologist/vaccine maker once said
"i'm only really happy if no problems after the Billionth shot"
the article describes initial temporary symptoms which seem to fade and the vaccine is not recommended for pregnant or nursing mothers or U16s
59
C19 Notes Database / Re: Lateral Flow Test LFD Accuracy
« Last post by stog on December 03, 2020, 10:54:55 AM »a 
a Biostatician posted the above on Twitter today (taken from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/community-testing-explainer/community-testing-a-guide-for-local-delivery#what-the-community-testing-programme-is ) saying
i replied that
a Biostatician posted the above on Twitter today (taken from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/community-testing-explainer/community-testing-a-guide-for-local-delivery#what-the-community-testing-programme-is ) saying
Quote
Mass testing in Liverpool MISSED ~50% of infections and ~30% with high viral loads. Results are in this Government document, but no actual numbers or details are given. Absolutely URGENT that @DHSCgovuk reports full data today and HALTS IMPLEMENTATION
i replied that
Quote
thx 4 posting LFD are indeed just a guide, son has just had one b4 leaving Uni- we must still maintain distance forweek really re symptom testing best is the very diagnosis of symptoms which points more accurately to C19 than any test & requires case to isolate 10 days from onset
60
C19 Notes Database / Re: Treatment & Vaccine Database
« Last post by stog on November 29, 2020, 09:35:28 AM »This vaccine tag search is very good for overview of all interim vaccine trials as they come through.
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/vaccines/
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/vaccines/