C19 Notes

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Drivers of epidemic dynamics from daily digital COVID measurements
Anonymised data from the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app provided rich insights into the drivers of the epidemic, at remarkable speed.
https://michellekendall.github.io/2024/07/11/Drivers-of-epi-dynamics/
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Links to Enquiries & academic papers / Re: The UK Covid-19 Inquiry
« Last post by stog on July 14, 2024, 05:25:03 PM »

Every Story Matters events are a way of sharing your story with the UK Covid Inquiry in person. Some of these events are targeted for specific groups of people affected by the pandemic, while others are open to the general public. or share your story online

see https://www.covid19.public-inquiry.uk/every-story-matters/


May be a graphic of map and text that says 'Covid-19 Llandudno Blackpool Luton Folkestone Ipswich Norwich 20 June 2024 -22June -22June2024 June 2024 22 8& 8 8&9Jul July 2024 12July 2024 &6August 2024 7August 2024 Oban -Autumn 2024 Inverness -Autumn 2024 Southampton- Autumn 2024 Coventry -Autumn 2024 Nottingham -Autumn 2024 Leicester -Autumn 2024 Manchester Swansea Bristol Winter 2025 -Winter 2025 -Winter 2025 Every Story Matters'
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Links to Enquiries & academic papers / Re: The UK Covid-19 Inquiry
« Last post by stog on July 14, 2024, 05:23:04 PM »
First Covid inquiry report to set out ‘appalling failures’ during pandemic Catalogue of errors by government and health officials includes the deliberate winding down of PPE stockpiles
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Links to Enquiries & academic papers / The UK Covid-19 Inquiry
« Last post by stog on July 13, 2024, 09:32:34 AM »
The UK Covid-19 Inquiry has been set up to examine the UK’s response to and impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and learn lessons for the future. 

https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/

The Inquiry began on 28 June 2022. Its investigations are organised into Modules. Throughout each of these Modules, the Inquiry hears evidence from witnesses, experts and Core Participants through a series of corresponding hearings.
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How covid-19 spreads: narratives, counter narratives, and social dramas BMJ 2022; 378  doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2022-069940 (Published 31 August 2022)

Trisha Greenhalgh and colleagues explore why inaccurate narratives about the mode of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 emerged early in the pandemic and shaped a flawed policy response, with tragic consequences

Key messages
  • A flawed narrative that SARS-CoV-2 was transmitted by droplets rather than being airborne became entrenched early in the pandemic
  • Measures aimed at an assumed droplet pathogen (handwashing, surface cleansing, physical distancing) were over-emphasised
  • Measures to reduce airborne transmission (improving indoor air quality, reducing indoor crowding and time spent indoors, and high-grade respiratory protection) were under-emphasised
  • UK policy makers seemed to favour narratives from a narrow group of scientific advisers
  • Consequences included care home deaths, mission critical delays in public masking, and avoidable infections of healthcare workers


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Scientists have discovered differences in the immune response that could explain why some people seem to reliably escape Covid infection.
Quote
As part of the UK Covid-19 Human Challenge study, 36 healthy adult volunteers without previous history of having Covid and who were unvaccinated were administered a low dose of the virus through the nose.

The study was carried out in 2021 at the height of the pandemic.

In 16 volunteers, the researchers monitored activity in immune cells in the blood and the lining of the nose to provide the most detailed timeline of immune activity before, during and after infection.

These participants were found to fall into three distinct groups: six people developed a sustained infection and became ill; three people became transiently positive but without developing a full infection; and seven experienced an “abortive infection”. This subset never tested positive, but the tests showed they had mounted an immune response.

In the abortive and transient groups, samples taken from before exposure to Covid showed these volunteers had high background levels of activity in a gene called HLA-DQA2. This was seen in “antigen-presenting” cells, which flag danger to the immune system. “These cells will take a little bit of the virus and show it to immune cells and say: ‘This is foreign: you need to go and sort it out,’” said Dr Kaylee Worlock of UCL, first author of the study.

The findings, published in Nature, suggest that people who have high levels of activity in this gene may have a more efficient immune response to Covid, meaning the infection never gets beyond the body’s first line of defence.

However, they were not completely immune – the volunteers were followed after the study and some later caught Covid in the community.

In the people who briefly tested positive, the scientists also recorded a rapid immune response in nasal cells, within a day of exposure, and a slower immune response in blood cells.

By contrast, those who developed a full infection had a much slower nasal response, starting on average five days after exposure, allowing the virus to establish itself.

The team said the findings could provide a basis for developing more effective treatments and vaccines that mimic optimal protective responses.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/19/covid-immune-response-study-could-explain-why-some-escape-infection
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C19 Notes Database / Re: Welcome to C19 NOTES
« Last post by stog on April 10, 2023, 09:16:47 AM »
Visiting this database here in 2023 I see that if you choose 'Recent Posts' & start from the last page, you get a sort of timeline of some of the developing science as it progressed, ie from no tests & vaccines to their eventual roll out, together with the evolving understanding of the nature of the virus and how best as Societies we could best mitigate and live with it, after first ensuring our Health services were not over-run which necessitated lock-downs

Please be aware Screenshots graphs and stats may not show up on mobile devices(now fixed 5/23)


_______________________________________________________

Please be aware some of the Articles may now be out of date or surpassed by more recent findings etc as the science evolves, so do take note of the Posting date and read in context.
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updated transmission chart

the Nature curve referenced above has now apparently been updated

see attachment below & is still the reason why Covid has such a high R number

in answer to someone:
People's immune systems differ & while someone may not react symptomatically their viral load (density) can be & is sufficient for spread
19
Revisiting this thread December 2022

Please note the graphics & data in the second post above were saved more because they helped us understand at the time how vaccinated hospitalisations would eventually rise more than unvaxed as vaxed became the majority

 a good updated overview of the UK Covid data & timeline is here https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/deaths-covid-19  which was last updated August 2022

Remember the CDC data in the 2nd post was from July in the year when Vaccines had had maybe 5 months of introduction, & were starting to really reduce serious illness in older people (>30 years of age probably) but it will be useful to see some of the latest updated data reviews. (see King's Fund Explainer linked above & here

Again the point we were studying in this post was the anomaly of the Simpson's Paradox

& please remember this Covid database of research articles/links was set up at Pandemic onset (Feb/March 2020)when there were no tests or vaccines & we were trying to get information to help us decide how we would continue our Clinic work with Patients and best advise them.

Set up for interested Patients, other Practitioners & Friends to help us make decisions.

 Pls be aware some Articles may now be outdated or surpassed by more recent findings as the science evolves so  please take extra note of Posting date & read in context

thx
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C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on March 03, 2022, 11:05:48 AM »
this medscape article has some info on the main Sub-Variant BA.2 that appeared in the Philippines and Denmark, with some initial info on how it does not show up on regular variant testing owing to its missing spike which is currently what is used to look for the sub variants

Quote
the original BA.1 variant was relatively easy to track due to a spike deletion (H69/V70), which provided a convenient target for testing, BA.2 does not contain this mutation. This means it is no longer possible to quickly distinguish between Omicron and other COVID-19 variants using PCR testing. Instead, monitoring requires additional genomic sequencing.


https://www.medscape.co.uk/viewarticle/omicron-sub-variant-ba-2-what-we-know-so-far-2022a100097f
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